🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet this year's field is distinctly different. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers improving together. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still