A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
